September Metro Analysis and Forecast Report

 In Market Reports

September Metro Analysis and Forecast Report.

In the Metro Analysis and Forecast report for September, extensive data analysis reports give insight into markets, including sales and pricing conditions in our markets.

  • Builders in Dallas-Fort Worth report strong average sales rates of 2–5 homes per community with flat (69%) to rising (31%) net prices.
    • Builders were pleased with August sales and pricing conditions with the exception of North Dallas submarkets near the 380 corridor. These submarkets remain oversupplied at move-up price points, and builders continue to use incentives.
    • Dallas ranks as the second-largest construction market in the nation, including 25K single-family and 18K multifamily permits; only Houston produces more volume.
    • Fort Worth’s 9.8K single-family and 6.8K multifamily permits would push the Metroplex to equal Houston.
    • Despite years of strong job and housing growth, Dallas’ single-family volume remains 22% below the prior peak. However, Dallas resale home prices have escalated to 72% above the prior peak, per our Burns Home Value Index™.
  • In Denver, a combination of increased supply (resale months of supply and finished lots for new homes) and slower economic expansion (particularly job growth) are likely slowing the local housing market.
    • Entry-level builders report solid sales at 2–3 per month but are using incentives to maintain sales paces.
    • An increased supply of move-up product (above $600K) in south Denver yields a slower pace with large incentives, especially on inventory.
  • Houston builders report strong August sales averaging 2–3.5 per month, with the highest rates at communities targeting entry-level buyers. Pricing remains flat to rising, with 33% of surveyed builders raising prices MOM.
    • New floodplain definitions stemming from the Atlas 14 survey will reduce the supply of Harris County land that can be feasibly developed for residential use.
    • Houston has many successful masterplans located outside of Harris County, which could see lot and home sales rise as demand pushes outward from the core.
    • Houston’s port ranks 5th in the world in volume and economic impact, and it could see declining volume as a result of the China trade war and cooling economies internationally. The Houston Medical Center employs 106K+ people and serves 10M patients annually; however, we identified health care as a riskier sector since easy debt access has fueled expansions beyond demographic-driven needs.

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